Vážené kolegyne, Vážení kolegovia,

Pozývame Vás na ďalší seminár o empirickej ekonómii, ktorý sa uskutoční v knižnici Ústavu ekonomického výskumu Slovenskej akadémie vied (EÚ SAV) dňa 22. apríla 2025 (utorok) od 13:00 do 14:30 hod.

Tentokrát pozvanie prijala Kamil Yilmaz (Koç University, Turkey), ktorý prednesie prezentáciu s názvom: “Inflation and Output Spillovers in Production Networks”

Abstrakt: This paper examines the transmission of inflation and output shocks across the U.S. manufacturing industries, with a particular focus on the role of production networks. Using variance decompositions from a vector autoregression (VAR) model, the study quantifies sectoral producer price inflation and output spillovers stemming from industry-specific and aggregate shocks. The analysis reveals that upstream industries are pivotal in the diffusion of producer price inflation shocks, with transmission intensifying during significant supply-side disruptions. Conversely, output spillovers are characterized by a weak yet consistently negative association with upstream positioning, indicating distinct propagation mechanisms for supply- and demand- driven shocks. Finally, the paper assesses the inflationary impact of tariffs, demonstrating that protectionist trade policies targeting upstream sectors can amplify inflation transmission throughout interconnected supply chains. These findings provide valuable policy insights into the broader economic consequences of tariff-induced shocks.

Seminár bude prebiehať hybridnou formou. Pre záujemcov budú rečníčka a niekoľko diskutujúcich prítomní v knižnici EÚ SAV.

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