Vážené kolegyne, Vážení kolegovia,

Pozývame Vás na ďalší seminár o empirickej ekonómii, ktorý sa uskutoční v knižnici Ústavu ekonomického výskumu Slovenskej akadémie vied (EÚ SAV) dňa 15. októbra 2025 (streda) od 10:00 do 11:30 hod.

Tentokrát pozvanie prijala Michaela Potančoková and Guillaume Marois (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria), ktorý prednesie prezentáciu s názvom: “Projecting Occupational Skill Mismatch amidst Demographic Shifts in the EU”

Abstract:

This paper assesses long-term labour mismatches in the European Union (EU27) by projecting the occupational distribution of workers and skill-specific labour demand from 2020 to 2060. Using a dynamic microsimulation approach (Link4Skills-Mic), we jointly model demographic, educational, and labour force dynamics at the individual level, combined with country-specific projections of occupational demand. The analysis highlights growing imbalances: while the supply of highly educated workers continues to rise, demand shifts are not evenly distributed across skill levels. As a result, underutilization of high-skilled workers coexists with persistent vacancies in medium- and low-skilled occupations. Rather than indicating widespread labour shortages, these trends point to structural mismatches driven by the misalignment of worker qualifications, job characteristics, and hiring practices. To explore potential responses, we examine a series of policy scenarios such as expanded immigration, education reform, mid-career retraining, delayed retirement, and employer-led automation and upskilling. The findings show that while certain policies can reduce specific mismatches, no single intervention resolves all gaps. Notably, automation reduces vacancies but increases underutilization, whereas human capital strategies shift mismatches between skill levels. These results suggest that addressing future labour mismatches will require coordinated, multi-pronged strategies that integrate demographic realities with evolving job demands in Europe’s ageing and increasingly knowledge-based economies.

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